NIO delivered 109,178 electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, a 25.4% increase over last year and right inside the 108,000 to 111,000 range it guided for in September.
But the quarter ended on a weak note. September deliveries grew just 7.7% year-over-year to 37,408 units, the slowest pace of 2026, as the ONVO brand fell 43%.
A quarter that fades month after month
The Chinese EV maker released its September and Q3 numbers today. On the surface, it’s fine: NIO hit its own guidance, year-to-date deliveries are up 49.2% to 300,301 units, and the company has now delivered 1,297,893 vehicles since it started.
The monthly trend is the problem. Growth was 71% in July, 14.5% in August, and 7.7% in September. Part of that is a tougher comparison, since NIO’s volume started ramping in the back half of 2025, but it’s also what’s happening on the ground with ONVO.
We flagged the slowdown back in May, when NIO’s April deliveries came in up only 22.8% after a 98% first quarter. New flagships bailed out the second quarter. They didn’t do the same for the third.
The NIO brand is carrying the whole company
Break the quarter down by brand and you get three very different stories:
| Brand | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIO | 36,928 | 62,500 | +69.2% | 13,728 | 21,318 | +55.3% |
| ONVO | 37,656 | 27,728 | −26.4% | 15,246 | 8,763 | −42.5% |
| FIREFLY | 12,487 | 18,950 | +51.8% | 5,775 | 7,327 | +26.9% |
| Total | 87,071 | 109,178 | +25.4% | 34,749 | 37,408 | +7.7% |
The premium NIO brand delivered 62,500 vehicles in the quarter, up 69%. That’s almost entirely the All-New ES8, which NIO says just crossed 150,000 cumulative deliveries on its first anniversary. The ES9 flagship SUV added 30,000 deliveries since its launch in May.
FIREFLY, the small premium brand, posted 7,327 deliveries in September, its best month of the year.
ONVO is the opposite. A year ago, it was NIO’s volume engine and outsold the NIO brand in August and September 2025. In Q3, it delivered 27,728 vehicles, down 26%. Its monthly deliveries peaked at 12,029 in May, when the new L80 SUV launched, and have fallen every month since, down to 8,763 in September.
On its Q2 earnings call, management blamed ONVO’s problems on brand awareness, saying it’s roughly where NIO’s own brand was “5 to 6 years ago.” The fix it pointed to is a “major strategic new product” for ONVO in 2027. That’s a long time to wait.
NIO’s own Q4 goal doesn’t get it to its 2026 target
Earlier this year, CEO William Li set a 2026 target of 456,000 to 489,000 deliveries, 40% to 50% growth over the 326,028 vehicles NIO delivered in 2025. After 300,301 deliveries through September, NIO needs between 155,699 and 188,699 in the fourth quarter to land in that range.
That’s 52,000 to 63,000 vehicles a month. NIO’s best month ever is 48,135, set last December.
And NIO isn’t promising that. On the Q2 call, it said its Q4 goal is “an average volume of over 40,000 units per month,” and even that assumes China’s car market recovers. Here’s how the scenarios shake out:
| Q4 2026 scenario | Q4 deliveries | Monthly avg | 2026 total | Growth vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIO’s Q4 goal (40,000/month) | 120,000 | 40,000 | 420,301 | +28.9% |
| Match Q4 2025 | 124,807 | 41,602 | 425,108 | +30.4% |
| Low end of 2026 target | 155,699 | 51,900 | 456,000 | +39.9% |
| High end of 2026 target | 188,699 | 62,900 | 489,000 | +50.0% |
So NIO’s own Q4 goal lands it roughly 36,000 vehicles short of the low end of its annual target. It would also mean a fourth quarter slightly below the 124,807 it delivered in Q4 2025.
Competitive context
NIO isn’t the only Chinese startup losing steam, as XPeng grew just 3.7% in August. But it’s not leading either. In August, the last month with full data, NIO’s 35,836 deliveries trailed XPeng (39,107), Li Auto (37,679), and Zeekr (36,981), while Leapmotor crossed 103,129, according to the companies’ monthly reports.
On the financial side, things are better than a year ago. NIO posted an 18.5% vehicle margin in Q2, up from 10.3%, and a positive non-GAAP operating profit. It also just sold 30% of its NIO Power battery swap unit to Geely, which brings in cash and a partner to share the swap network’s costs.
Electrek’s Take
The headline number is good. NIO grew 25% in a weak Chinese market and hit its guidance. Nobody should call that a bad quarter.
But the shape of the quarter matters more than the total. NIO is now basically a two-model premium story: the ES8 and ES9 are selling, FIREFLY is growing nicely off a small base, and ONVO, the brand that was supposed to take NIO mainstream against the Model Y, is shrinking fast.
And the 2026 target is gone. NIO doesn’t say so, but it would be extremely difficult to achieve without a massive reversal for the auto industry in China. To hit even the low end, it would need to beat its all-time monthly record by about 8% for three straight months. We don’t see that happening.
That’s not a disaster. A year around 420,000 deliveries would still be close to 30% growth, with margins finally heading the right way.
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